Why there's no single "off-market inventory" number
No government agency publishes a unified count of off-market or distressed properties. You have to triangulate from several partial sources — vacancy data, foreclosure filings, probate filings, and absentee-owner tax records — each of which captures a different slice of the off-market pool.
Illustrative off-market inventory estimate ranges by source
| Signal | Public source | Estimate share of housing stock |
|---|---|---|
| Vacant housing units | Census ACS | 5%-12% (varies heavily by area) |
| Pre-foreclosure/foreclosure filings (annual) | County clerk / public foreclosure feeds | 0.2%-0.6% |
| Absentee/out-of-state owner parcels | County assessor records | 8%-15% |
| Probate filings (annual) | County probate court | 0.3%-1% |
These figures are illustrative estimate ranges, not a measured off-market census — actual overlap between categories (e.g., a vacant probate property) isn't accounted for and would need de-duplication in a real local pull.
How to reproduce this yourself
- Pull deed/transfer records from your county recorder or a title company for the ZIP codes or city you're evaluating (many counties publish these free online).
- Filter for "double-close" or same-day/short-hold transactions (buyer and seller on the same parcel within 0-30 days) as a rough proxy for wholesale-style flips.
- Cross-reference sale prices with an ARV estimate from recent comparable sales (MLS or a public comp tool) to back into estimated spreads.
- Pull HUD/Census ACS data for household income, vacancy rate, and rent-to-price ratio by ZIP to gauge investor demand.
- Check FHFA House Price Index for the metro to see appreciation trend context.
- Cross-check foreclosure/pre-foreclosure filing counts from your county clerk or an ATTOM-style public data feed to estimate distressed-inventory volume.
Limitations
These are estimate ranges, not audited findings. Public deed records don't label a transaction "wholesale deal" — the double-close/short-hold proxy above will include unrelated flips and renovations. Sample sizes, time periods, and data completeness vary by county. Always validate any range against your own local pull before using it to price a deal or set expectations with a client.
Where Offr AI fits in
Once you've benchmarked a market using the steps above, Offr AI turns a plain-English buy box into 25+ off-market distressed leads across all 50 states, each with skip-traced owner phone numbers, an ARV estimate, a rehab range, a suggested Maximum Allowable Offer (MAO), ready-to-send contracts, and call scripts, plus matching to your local cash-buyer list. Try 3 searches free, or see pricing for the $45/mo platform-only or $65/mo all-access plan (7-day free trial).
See also: wholesaling guides, answers hub, and plan comparisons.